October's numbers tell an interesting story. The GTA real estate market is slowly becoming more balanced in certain areas, but that doesn't mean we're seeing a meaningful return of buyer confidence or widespread competition.
In fact, we're seeing two very different markets developing.
Some segments, particularly low-rise homes in the City of Toronto, are showing signs of resilience, while other parts of the GTA, especially the condominium market and many suburban communities, continue to struggle.
The common theme?
Buyers are still interested, but they're very selective, cautious and in no rush to make a purchase.
For sellers, listings need to be priced below their perceived value, look great and an agent who is willing and able to answer the multitude of questions buyers through at them to generate interest, receive offers and eventually sell. Those that don't follow these rules tend to sit on the market for a long time. By the time sellers realize they need a price reduction because they're not getting any traffic, the market has already passed them by.
In some instances, their properties are worth less than they were when they first listed. This starts the cycle all over again, leaving frustrated sellers disheartened.
Here's what happened in October and what I'm seeing as we head toward the end of 2026.
October by the Numbers
There were 5,603 home sales in October, down 7.9% compared to October 2025. There were 14,173 new listings, a decline of 11.9% year-over-year.
The average selling price was $1,024,108, down 2.7%, while the MLS Home Price Index benchmark declined 4.3%.
A few things stand out:
Sales are down, but new listings are falling even faster.
Prices continue to trend lower compared to last year, although the month-over-month numbers showed a slight improvement.
Buyers still have negotiating power, but the amount of leverage varies considerably depending on the property type and, more importantly, the location and neighbourhood.
Houses vs. Condos: Two Very Different Markets
This is where the October numbers become particularly interesting.
Low-rise houses continue to hold up considerably better than condominiums.
Across the GTA, house sales declined 6% year-over-year, compared to a 10% decline in condo sales. The average house price was $1,232,747, down 2%, while the average condo price was $635,981, down 6%.
Inventory has also tightened in both markets: October 2026
Market indicator | Houses | Condos |
Sales change YoY | -6% | -10% |
New listings change | -12% | -12% |
Active listings change | -16% | -14% |
Months of inventory | 4.0 | 5.7 |
Average price change | -2% | -6% |
Selling above asking | 23% | 13% |
Source: Move Smartly (Movesmartly.com)
The difference in months of inventory is important. Houses are now sitting at four months of inventory, which is approaching a balanced market. Some more competitive neighbourhoods have closer to, or in some instances less than, 3 months of inventory, showing that these more sought-after neighbourhoods remain competitive.
Condos remain at 5.7 months, meaning buyers have more choice and generally more negotiating room.
Where I think the opportunities are:
- Detached and semi-detached homes: Particularly in established Toronto neighbourhoods, where supply is becoming more limited and demand is holding up better. You can still find a home and negotiate a better price if you're willing to keep your options open regarding finishes and condition. For example, a move-in-ready home that isn't the most modern may sit for a while, even in a competitive neighbourhood. This can give buyers some negotiating leverage and an opportunity to find value. Buyer's should not always focus on the most updated and newly renovated homes if they expect to find a value buy. Those are the ones attracting the most competition.
- Townhouses and condo townhouses: A middle ground for buyers who want more space than a condo in the sky without taking on the cost of a detached home. I'm seeing some of these properties sit for a while because they're competing with semi-detached and detached homes in a market with higher selection. You can negotiate a bit more aggressively on these properties and you may be able to buy in a great neighbourhood without going to the top end of your budget.
- Condominiums: Buyers continue to have opportunities, particularly in buildings with more competing listings, higher maintenance fees or units that need updating. Larger buildings are not performing as well as smaller boutique buildings as they have fewer units for sale. The value opportunity here is finding a two-bedroom condo that could make a good starter home for 20%–30% less than what similar units sold for in 2021. This is especially true in buildings with reasonable maintenance fees and great locations near transit, as these larger condos are typically the condos that could rebound first when the market improves over the next few years as they are still geared towards smaller families.
Sellers in this segment need to be very realistic about pricing, or their properties will sit on the market for a long time.
Location Matters More Than Ever
One of the biggest mistakes buyers and sellers can make right now is treating the GTA as one real estate market.
The regional numbers show just how differently things are moving.
Toronto and York: Holding Up Better for Houses
The City of Toronto and York Region were the only areas where house sales remained essentially unchanged from last year, both recording slight increases of less than 1%.
Toronto also had 3.4 months of inventory, compared to 4.3 months across the suburbs. This tells us that buyers looking for well-located low-rise homes in established Toronto neighbourhoods are facing a different environment than buyers shopping in many suburban markets.
However, there are some clear differences worth paying attention to.
Entry-level and more affordable properties: Buyers looking for smaller homes, townhouses and more affordable properties generally have a larger potential buyer pool. But affordability remains a major consideration, and buyers are still comparing monthly carrying costs carefully.
The sub-$1 million up to $1.5 million range: This is where property type and neighbourhood become especially important. A renovated semi in an established Toronto neighbourhood may attract considerably more attention than a similarly priced detached home in a less desirable suburban location. Buyers are paying attention to value rather than simply buying based on price.
The higher-end market: Buyers purchasing more expensive homes are often more sensitive to borrowing costs and economic uncertainty. With fewer buyers able or willing to make these purchases, sellers need to be realistic about expectations, particularly when competing properties are available.
The takeaway is that price alone doesn't determine how quickly a property will sell. Location, condition, property type and competition all play a role.
What Happens From Here?
I think we're heading into the final stretch of 2026 with a market that is gradually tightening in certain segments, but still lacking the confidence needed for a meaningful recovery.
There are a few things I'll be watching closely.
Interest Rates and Economic Confidence
Higher fixed mortgage rates and the Bank of Canada's recent policy rate increase have added another layer of uncertainty for buyers. Even though home prices are lower than they were a year ago, higher borrowing costs are making buyers more cautious.
A clearer economic outlook, including progress on a Canada-U.S. trade agreement, could help improve confidence heading into 2027. But I wouldn't expect buyers to suddenly rush back into the market.
Inventory Levels
New listings declined by almost 12% in October, and active inventory is also lower than last year.
If this trend continues while sales remain relatively stable, we could see further tightening, particularly in the low-rise Toronto market.
However, fewer listings don't automatically mean prices will increase. We still need to see stronger buyer demand. Will buyers jump in as they usually do in the spring of 2027 and will inventory still be on the lower trajectory or will we see a increase in listings from sellers who could not sell this past year and they took their properties off the market in hopes the market rebounds in 2027?
Condo Market Recovery
This is probably the segment I'll be watching most closely heading into 2027. With prices down more substantially and inventory still elevated, there are big opportunities for buyers. But a sustained recovery will depend on improved demand, affordability and confidence.
Final Thoughts
The October numbers reinforce that some Toronto neighbourhoods are showing signs of a more balanced market, with desirable low-rise homes attracting competition. Meanwhile, parts of the suburban market remain slower, and condominiums continue to offer buyers some of the best negotiating opportunities we've seen in decades.
For buyers, patience and research remain valuable. There is no need to rush into a purchase, but there are opportunities worth exploring to get a deal in this market. I've already seen many buyers pick up homes for 15%, 20% or even 25% less than they would have sold for just three years ago.
For sellers, the market is still very much about pricing, presentation and understanding your competition. Simply putting a property on the market and expecting buyers to show up is not a strategy.
My expectation is that we'll continue to see relatively flat to modestly declining prices across much of the GTA, with certain desirable neighbourhoods and property types holding up better than others. The market isn't frozen everywhere, but it certainly isn't moving fast either.
If you're thinking about making a move or simply want to understand what's happening in your neighbourhood and what your home may be worth, feel free to reach out. I'm always happy to share what I'm seeing on the ground.
— Gus PapaioannouSales Representative | Move Smartly Brokerage