GTA Real Estate Market Update – June 2026

The Market Is Moving Along… But Buyers Are Taking Their Time

The latest numbers from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board show a market that continues to evolve at a measured pace.

In May, GTA home sales increased by 6.3% compared to the same month last year, keep in mind last year were 20+ year low numbers so we really dont have anywhere to go but up from here. New listings declined by nearly 19%, this stat is the more important one for me, as we see inventory slowly decrease and sales slowly increase are we at or have we started to move on from the bottom?

This combination has led to a gradual tightening of inventory (although we are above average inventory levels still) across many parts of the region. The average selling price across the GTA was $1,069,700, down 4.6% year-over-year, while active listings sat at 26,927 homes. Although inventory remains elevated by historical standards, buyers are no longer seeing the same abundance of choice that existed six to twelve months ago.

The result is a market that feels more active than the headline price numbers might suggest.

What I’m Seeing On The Ground

One of the biggest differences between today's market and what the statistics alone show is the level of buyer engagement.

Over the past several months, I have noticed a significant increase in conversations with prospective buyers. Phone calls, property inquiries, showings, and requests for neighbourhood information have all increased. The interest is there.

What hasn't returned yet is urgency or the need to buy for many.

Most buyers are still taking a cautious approach. They are researching neighbourhoods more thoroughly, comparing properties more carefully, and spending more time understanding market trends before making a commitment.

This is very different from the market conditions we experienced during 2020 through 2022, where decisions often needed to be made immediately. Today's buyers want confidence before moving forward, and many are willing to wait for the right property rather than compromise.

As a result, well-priced homes continue to sell, but buyers are negotiating more aggressively and are rarely rushing into purchases.

Condos Continue To Present Opportunities

The condominium market remains one of the most interesting segments of the GTA.

In several Toronto neighbourhoods, condos are now regularly trading below $750 - $800 per square foot. In some cases, these values are comparable to pricing levels we were seeing in 2018.

For buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines, this creates opportunities that haven't existed for years. Lower purchase prices combined with lower borrowing costs compared to the peak of the rate cycle have improved affordability significantly.

While not every building or neighbourhood is experiencing the same level of price adjustment, there is no question that many condo buyers today have substantially more negotiating power than they did just a few years ago and can buy larger 2 Bedroom units at much lower prices than just a few short month ago.

Inventory Is Tightening, But Buyers Still Hold Leverage

The biggest story from the May numbers may not be sales growth—it may be the reduction in new listings.

New listings declined by 18.9% year-over-year while sales increased. This means existing inventory is slowly being absorbed by the market.

That said, we're not seeing widespread bidding wars return, nor are we seeing a rapid appreciation cycle develop. Buyers continue to benefit from elevated inventory levels compared to long-term norms, longer days on market, and increased negotiating opportunities.

What To Expect For The Rest Of 2026

While inventory has become slightly tighter, there is still plenty of supply available across most property types and price points.

Unless we see a major shift in economic conditions, employment growth, or borrowing costs, I believe the current trend of relatively flat pricing—with modest fluctuations depending on neighbourhood and property type—will continue through the remainder of 2026.

Some sought after areas may experience slight appreciation as inventory tightens further, while others, particularly portions of the condominium market, may continue to see modest price softness.

For buyers, this likely means continued opportunities and negotiating power.

For sellers, it means pricing strategy, presentation, and marketing remain critical. The days of simply listing a property and expecting multiple offers are still the exception rather than the rule.

Final Thoughts

The GTA market continues to show signs of improving activity, but confidence remains the key ingredient that buyers are waiting for.

As we move through the second half of the year, I'll be watching inventory levels closely. If listings continue to decline while buyer activity remains steady heading into the fall market, we could see prices stabilize further and begin trending upward in select segments heading into 2027.

For now, buyers continue to have options, sellers need to remain realistic, and the market remains one of patience rather than urgency.

If you're considering buying, selling, or simply want to understand what's happening in your neighbourhood, feel free to reach out anytime.

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— Gus Papaioannou

Realosophy Realty

February Data : Sales, Prices Continue Slide, Signal Opportunity For Some Buyers.

Data Via https://www.realosophy.com/

According to the February 2026 Market Watch report, we had 3,868 home sales, representing a 6.3% decline compared to February 2025. To put this in context our 25 year average since 2000 has been 6100 sales in February so we are down 37% from the average February.

At the same time, new listings fell even more sharply to 10,705, down 17.7% year-over-year. Still we have a lot of inventory available for sale but it vary’s from home type and area. Downtown core condos are probably where we see some of the highest inventory as well as outside Toronto with plenty of suburban options.

The average selling price across the GTA came in at $1,008,968, down 7.1% year-over-year.

Lets take a look at how each housing type is performing.

DETACHED HOMES

Breaking the market down by housing type reveals meaningful differences between property segments. Detached homes remain the most expensive segment of the market, with an average selling price of approximately $1,568,543 across the GTA. Still detached homes prices dropped 8.2% from last year Feb, the biggest dip in all home types, most likely because they are the most expensive and fewer buyers are actively looking in the higher price point.

Sales activity in this category totalled 698 transactions in February, reflecting a moderate slowdown compared to last year as higher borrowing costs continue to limit affordability for many buyers.

SEMI-DETACHED HOMES

The semi-detached market, often considered the entry point into the low-rise housing market in Toronto, recorded 336 sales in February with an average selling price of roughly $1,229,853 across the GTA. Semi-detached homes continue to serve as a compromise between affordability and space, appealing to young families and first-time buyers moving up from condominiums. However, like detached homes, this segment has also experienced modest price declines compared to the previous year, reflecting broader affordability constraints in the market.

TOWNHOUSES

Townhouses continue to act as a key “missing middle” housing option in the GTA. February saw 545 townhouse sales with an average selling price of approximately $980,175. This segment remains particularly attractive to buyers seeking a ground-oriented home with a lower price point than detached or semi-detached properties.

CONDOS

The condominium apartment market remains the most active by transaction volume, with 1,683 sales in February, representing the largest share of all GTA home sales. The average selling price for condos came in at roughly $663,984, making them the most accessible entry point into home ownership for many buyers in the region. Despite this relative affordability, the condo segment has faced some of the most significant price declines year-over-year and we will probably continue to see downward pressure on prices for this segment going into the end of 2026.

SUMMARY

For now, the February data reflects a market that is slower than historical norms. That being said I’m still seeing interest in the market from many first time homebuyers or some up-sizers seeing an opportunity to buy for much less than years previous. Buyers are being cautious and taking their time.

For those looking to get into the market this year, there are some deals to be had if you know where to look and how to negotiate them, yet other parts of the market can be competitive depending on neighbourhood and home type as well as price point. We are even seeing the odd bidding war on those turn key ready homes in the 1M - 1.5M price point in sought after pockets as we see few of these available to start the year and more of the inventory are in the fixer upper, duplex or triplex homes, these cost money and time to update and not many have an appetite for that right now.

A savvy buyer can find that home that needs a bit of love, maybe isn’t marketed correctly, its not staged or photographed well and with a bit of paint and a small updates such as updating floors or kitchen countertops its a move in ready home at a discount!

As always reach out with your real estate questions or comments or feel free to click the link below to book a No Obligation Phone Call.

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2025 Had the Lowest Home Sales in 25 Years - What now?

The Big Picture: Activity vs. Availability

Sales activity remains subdued across the GTA. Annual home sales in 2025 declined compared to 2024, with buyers clearly hesitant to commit amid ongoing economic uncertainty. According to TRREB who reported 62,433 home sales in 2025, down 11.2% year-over-year, and their lowest level in 25 years in the GTA. All this while new listings climbed to 186,753 — up 10.1%

That imbalance — fewer buyers and more sellers — has been the defining trend for the market over the past year.

Prices reflect this shift. The average selling price in 2025 was $1,067,968, down 4.7% from 2024, while the MLS Home Price Index composite was down 6.3% year-over-year by year-end

In simple terms: prices have softened, but not collapsed — and affordability has improved as a result.

Inventory Is Doing the Heavy Lifting

One of the most important metrics I continue to watch is Months of Inventory. It helps explain not just where prices are, but why they’re behaving the way they are.

Simple understanding of MOI - Months Of Inventory

Zero - 2/3 months of inventory available means a competitive market where prices tend to increase, the closer to zero months we are the faster prices increase.

3-5 months of inventory is a balanced market, prices usually flat line and the market moves slower but the demand is very neighbourhood and home type dependent.

5, 6 + months or more and the market is slower, the higher the months go the more likely we see prices drop, its basically a buyers market and most homes sit on the market for weeks and months.

Current Months Of Inventory

GTA All Home types - 5.4 Months

GTA Freehold Homes (not Condos) - 4.6 Months

GTA Condos - 6.78 Months

Toronto All Home types - 5.6 Months

Toronto Freehold Homes - 4.10 Months

Toronto Condos - 6.75 Months

By the end of 2025, active listings across the GTA sat well above long-term norms, pushing the market firmly into balanced-to-buyer-friendly territory. This has allowed buyers to negotiate — something that was nearly impossible during the peak years.

Condos, in particular, continue to carry the most inventory pressure.

What I’m Seeing on the Ground

This data lines up closely with what I’m seeing day to day but the data always lags to what buyers and sellers are thinking and how they are acting.

Buyers are active — but selective. They’re watching rates, watching the economy, and watching how long homes are sitting. Many are prepared, pre-approved, and ready — but only if the right opportunity comes along.

Sellers, on the other hand, are realistic - when they have to be. Homes that are priced correctly and positioned well still sell. But listings that chase yesterday’s prices are sitting — sometimes for months — until the market forces an adjustment.

The gap between, expectation and reality, is still where most friction exists.

I am still hearing from many who want to be active in 2026 but are cautious, some say they see great opportunity, others are more subdued and worried about a recession, job losses and a further decline in prices. But both sides are paying attention for signals on how they should proceed.

What This Means Heading Forward

We are no longer in a market where timing alone guarantees success. Strategy matters again.

• Buyers have leverage, time, and choice — especially in the condo and entry-level freehold segments.

• Sellers need to be precise on pricing, presentation, and marketing from day one.

• Neighbourhood quality still matters: walkability, transit access, schools, and lifestyle continue to separate strong performers from the rest. The turnkey ready homes in sought after neighbourhoods are still moving quicker than everything else, especially those in the sweat spot of 1.6M/1.7M or lower. It’s the old adage - location, location, location.

Final Thoughts

Normally sluggish periods can sometimes surprise us — but this market isn’t running on momentum. It’s running on confidence, and that confidence hasn’t fully returned yet.

That said, cycles don’t end quietly. When sentiment shifts, it tends to do so quickly. Understanding where we are before that shift happens is where real opportunity lies.

My advice for those looking to get into the market in 2026.

Don’t try to time the market. Prices have come down for homes considerably, we are talking $150,000, $200,000, $300,000 in some cases for freehold homes priced in the $1Mill - 2.5Mill range and for the luxury market ($3M + ) prices have dropped $300K, $500K even $700K in some instances depending on the home and neighbourhood. Similarly, condos have seen prices go from $1100-$1300 a Square foot to now $800-$900 a Square foot, 1 Bedroom condos that used to sell for $600K+ are now in the low to mid $400’s, two bedrooms that were $850,000 are now barely getting $650K.

Instead of trying to time the market like some day trader, I suggest to buy based on affordability and lifestyle, if you are in a position to get into a home or neighbourhood you could not before, this seems to be the window for many. And do not be afraid to negotiate, you never know when you can save another

$30K, $40K, $100K or perhaps more.

My opinion on how 2026 will unfold.

It will be a good year for opportunists, buyers who have been watching closely to get in the market for the first time especially or those upsizing from smaller homes will continue to search. Those who once could not afford that 2 Bedroom Condo or 4 Bedroom House will take advantage in 2026. While I believe the market will be slow overall and prices will continue a slight downward trend I do think it may end up being a better year in terms of units sold than 2025 for the following reasons.

1. More and more buyers are on the sidelines paying attention and recognize the opportunity to upsize

2. We may see a couple more rate cuts to help affordability further as we head into Spring/Summer

3. Selection will be the best we have seen it in decades and first time buyers will continue to take advantage much the way they did to end the year

4. Up-sizers who are in a comfortable position and have growing families will also be active in 2026

5. Sellers are finally getting the message and pricing accordingly which will offer more enticing pricing to buyers

As always, If you’re thinking about buying, selling, or just trying to make sense of what all this means for your specific neighbourhood, feel free to reach out anytime.

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