Buyer's Getting Active, Sellers Getting Realistic.

August 2025 Market Update – Things are happening but still at a slower than usual pace.

If June felt like the warm-up act, July was the first real sign that buyers are starting to trickle back into the show. It wasn’t a stampede, but it also wasn’t the ghost town we’ve seen for much of 2025. The numbers show a little bit of momentum building—but also that we’re still in a market where patience and pricing smarts matter a lot.

The Big Picture

Sales: 6,100 homes sold across the GTA in July—up 10.9% compared to July 2024. This is the strongest July since 2021, so yes, there’s life out there.

New Listings: 17,613 hit the market, 5.7% more than last year. More choice for buyers, but sales grew faster than listings—meaning conditions tightened just a little.

Active Listings: Still high at 30,215 which means inventory is still plenty but with the increase in sales it has come down slightly from the 31, 603 we had at the end of June 2025 which is notable only because July is usually a month where things start to slow as the kids are out of school and some buyers get distracted with holidays and other activities. Not so this year. Even for myself Ive been contacted by more buyers in July than I was in February/March which is usually when we hear from most buyers entering the spring market. It’s obvious many buyers hit pause and some have now started to enter the market.

Average Price: $1,051,719—down 5.5% year-over-year. On the month, prices held steady from June.

Takeaway: More sales + a bit of tightening but still plenty of inventory heading into what is usually sleepy August for the Real Estate Industry.

Why Sales Are Up? Three main factors:

Better Affordability – Prices are lower than in the last few years and buyers see an opportunity, especially first time homebuyers or upsizes looking to go from a smaller condo to a freehold. As an example at the height of 2021 we were hard pressed to find a handful of freehold properties for sale under 1Million in Toronto. This is important as a first time buyer can opt to put less than 20% on a purchase under 1Million by opting to use CMHC Mortgage Insurance and this option was non existent in 2021, as of this update there are 848 freehold homes available for sale in Toronto at 1Million or less, so some buyers, especially first time buyers are finally saying “let’s do this.”

Borrowing Cost Relief – Rates haven’t dropped to “cheap money” territory, but any easing is helping people qualify and feel a bit more confident.

Still, mortgage rates around 5% mean buyers are picky and sensitive to price. The market isn’t rewarding overconfidence.

Reality is Setting in for Sellers - Many sellers are realizing we are not headed for any type of rebound anytime soon. This is the market today and will continue to be into the foreseeable future. So, they are loosening their grip on what they are willing to sell for and negotiating with buyers instead of waiting for that magical offer that just wont come. Which explains, higher sales but prices have come down 5.5%.

Home Type Performance Breakdown: Here’s what happened in July by category (GTA-wide):

Detached – Avg. $1,361,660, sales up but prices still -5.1% YoY.

Semi-Detached – Avg. $1,041,359, prices -2.3% YoY.

Townhomes – Avg. $849,380, prices -7.4% YoY.

Condos – Avg. $651,483, prices -9.3% YoY.

Translation: Detached homes are moving again, semis and towns are hanging in, and condos are still under the most price pressure.

What’s Actually Selling and What’s Sitting

Well-priced homes in move-in condition that are presented with the right marketing. This means staging, professional photography, styling, painting, handy men fixing up issues, landscaping if applicable, social media and online presence. Sellers need to get buyers looking at them and take advantage of, every marketing avenue, custom property websites, flyers, photography, video, instagram ads, lifestyle videos, google ads, open houses, door knocking neighbours and of course MLS, you need them all in this market. Homes using all these resources are still moving within 2–4 weeks.

What I mean about well-priced is that the sellers that are having success are pricing at or below 2021 pricing to help attract the few buyers looking.

To put things into perspective, in 2021 every home was getting 40, 60, 80+showings in a week with a blink of an eye. Today it’s more like 3, 6, 10 if you are really a unique, very nice, move in ready home in a sought after neighbourhood thats priced right with all the marketing I mentioned. Everyone else is lucky to get 1-3 showings in a week, some will go weeks without a showing when priced wrong. If you are a condo, especially a smaller one, you can expect 2-4 showings in a month unless again you are very unique and/or priced aggressively.

Overpriced listings: Sitting… and sitting. Buyers will wait you out, they have lots and lots of options to look at. Sellers will have decisions to make come the fall market in September. Either get ahead of the market and present and price right to sell before the holidays or risk sitting into and after the holidays.

Renovation projects: Only selling if priced very aggressively—construction costs are keeping many from taking them on, investors are watching but not active, many investors or developers I hear from are asking if I know of distressed sellers and really not interested in a renovation unless it’s a steal.

Economic Backdrop

TRREB points out that the Canadian economy is “treading water.” Trade uncertainty with the U.S. is real, but housing could be the growth engine—if rates ease further. Sounds like we should not see too much activity on this front to end the year, my prediction is one .25% rate drop between now and December at most. Going into 2026 could be different but difficult to predict this far out.

Where We’re At in the Cycle

Think of the market like a restaurant that’s been 3/4 empty for months. In July, more people walked in. They’re browsing the menu, maybe ordering an appetizer, but not everyone’s committing to the three-course meal yet. That “order” moment—when prices start to climb again—needs either bigger rate cuts or a sharper drop in inventory, it feels like both will take a long while to happen.

Looking Ahead

August and September will be telling. If sales keep climbing faster than listings, we’ll see more tightening into the fall. But if more sellers rush in to list for the fall market (Sept - Dec) the balance will swing back to buyers fast. As Ive mentioned in the past I believe we will see a blip of buyer activity but for the most part this will stay a buyers market in most neighbourhoods in the GTA heading into 2026.

Bottom Line: July brought the busiest mid-summer market in four years, but prices are still softer, and negotiating power remains in buyers’ hands. Sellers with realistic expectations are making deals. Everyone else? Still waiting…

As always if you have any questions, concerns or want advice on buying or selling happy to chat, simply click the link below to set up a no obligation phone call.

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"Let's Wait In The Car, The Snack's Aren't Out Yet." - July 2025 - Toronto Market Update

How Most Toronto Buyers Are Feeling Right Now

Hard to believe we are at the halfway point of 2025 already. The news has been fairly consistent throughout the year with buyers being MIA and sellers struggling to figure out how best to proceed. June numbers are out, lets unpack them as well as what I'm seeing on the ground.

The market has been challenging to say the least but we could be seeing the very early first glimpse of buyers starting to take advantage of the choice they have and more importantly for them, the negotiating power they have which is leading to the softer prices.

We’ve officially hit that part of the cycle where buyers have the upper hand—but some either do not realize it yet or they do and hope there is more of a downturn ahead so they wait. Still, they are asking questions and watching.

It’s like everyone showed up to the party early, saw the snack table wasn’t out, and decided to wait in the car.

Looking at the stats:

June 2025 wrapped up with 6,243 sales across the GTA, down 2.4% from the same month last year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, June home sales are flat month-over-month compared to May 2025.

Active listings are up a whopping 30.8% year-over-year with 31,603 available homes for sale across the GTA. New listings however are up 7.7% which is a jump but only half as much as the 14% jump in new listings we had in May 2025 and much less than the 28% in new listings we had in April 2025. Now, important to state this trend of less listings heading into summer months is normal, more listings come up in the months of March - May than June as thats the traditional Spring Market but the difference is substantial compared to the amount of listings we had from March to May. With a small uptick in sales and new interested buyers inquiring, we can see how this could possibly shift things slightly heading into the second half of the year if this trend continues.

I am seeing and hearing from more buyers, first time buyers especially. With lower interest rates, first time buyers have had time to pile up more savings and with prices declining they can now afford more, including homes they may not have been able to consider in the past that are now within their reach sitting on the market and waiting for a negotiation.

As an example the condo market has seen such a price shift that there are plenty of starter 1 Bed or 2 Bed units that are selling 20% below what they sold in the peak of 2021 and 2022. I’m talking 2 Bedrooms, mid town, next to the subway, newer buildings, move in ready that used to sell for $800,000 -$850,000 now selling for $630,000. More to come on this and houses in different neighbourhoods with similar trends of prices falling as I’ll share some of these real sold examples 2021 vs 2025 similar sales on my instagram and twitter in the coming weeks.

The average selling price in June 2025 dropped to $1,101,691, a 5.4% dip from June 2024.

So, the trend is clear: prices are softening, listings are piling up but at a slower pace, and buyers have options with new buyers starting to take advantage of the lower prices as some jump in.

Final Thought:

Here’s the truth no one wants to say out loud: There will not be a big bounce back this year, or next year. We’re not suddenly going back to 2021/22 energy. If anything, the market is normalizing, and this might be what normal feels like for a while. I suspect we will see prices begin to flatline going into 2026 and just stay there, for a while.

If you’re a buyer waiting for some magic moment where prices crash you’re probably waiting too long. As mentioned above you can find homes selling 10%, 15%, 20% less today than they were selling in 2021 -2023. Will prices fall further? Possibly, nobody can predict that, but with so many buyers on the sidelines I can see many of them realize that timing the market is a foolish game, if they are in a secure position finically, have strong jobs that wont be affected much by tariffs or a recession then starting their search now is as good as any, buyer competition is low, they can now afford more in the sought after areas they want to be in and if they plan correctly and are patient to buy what they like and stay 5,7,10 years they will be just fine even if prices fall a bit.

For sellers. This summer is all about strategy. If you need to sell, price sharp. Look great. Negotiate smart. This is not a time to be stubborn. And above all—adjust your expectations.

Questions? Want a deep dive on your neighbourhood? Or just want someone to cut through the noise? Send me a email or set up a No Obligation Phone call.

Prices Continue To Fall, Anxious Seller's, Patient Buyer's. Opportunity On The Horizon.

If you’ve been wondering where today’s buyers have gone, you’re not alone. After a frenetic market that saw bidding wars and skyrocketing prices for years, many buyers have stepped to the sidelines – some by choice, other's dealing with affordability pressures, uncertainty around the economy, and simply a lack of compelling options.

In May 2025, GTA home sales ticked down to 6,244 units, marking a 13.3% decline compared to May 2024 (6,244 vs. 7,206) as reported by TRREB’s MLS® System.

Broadly speaking, the average selling price across all home types in May came in at $1,120,879, down 4% from $1,167,646 in May 2024. This year’s spring frenzy has cooled into something more akin to a gentle breeze.

INVENTORY

There’s no shortage of choice for buyers. May saw a 14% increase in new listings year-over-year, with 21,819 properties hitting the market. That’s a big jump, up 14% compared to 19,147 in May 2024.

Active listings climbed even more dramatically—up 42% compared to last May. That means more unsold homes sitting on the market longer. The average time to sell? 27 days on market. But talk to any agent and you’ll hear stories of 30, 60, even 90 days and counting.

That being said it is Important to understand that a large portion of duplexes, triplex’s or homes in need of upgrades seem to be the ones taking the longest to sell or not selling at all. Why? Capital is hard to come by or expensive so most buyers do not want to renovate right now and investors who usually look to buy multi -units are more interested in selling.

What’s Driving the Surge?

Confidence—or lack of it. Borrowing costs are still high. And even though there’s chatter about rate cuts, buyers aren’t rushing in just yet.

Shift in Buyer Mindset: With mortgage rates still elevated compared to pre-pandemic lows, prospective buyers aren’t as eager to roll the dice on a hot listing. They’re willing to wait for more options or better pricing rather than chase the next bidding war.

Condo vs. Freehold Dynamics: The condo segment has especially piled up extra supply. We currently have 7.5 Months of Inventory for Condos. Freeholds have close to 4.5 Months of inventory. Meaning at the current rate of sales we would need nearly 5 Months to sell all Freeholds and nearly 8 Months to sell all condos. In the Spring of 2022 we were selling all home types within 1-2 months.

WHAT'S GOING ON WITH PRICES?


Prices are dropping, but slowly. While headlines talk about affordability “improving,” what that really means is prices are dropping faster than interest rates.

Detached Homes: In May 2025, the average price for a detached home sat at $1,425,264, down 5.4 percent compared to May 2024.

Semi-Detached: Semi-detached homes averaged $1,098,447 in May 2025, down 6.4 percent from a year earlier.

Townhouses: Townhouse prices moderated to $904,272, down 4.5 percent from May 2024

Condo Apartments: Average condo-apartment prices dipped to $683,413, a 6.4 percent decline compared to May 2024’s $715,000.

Yet some segments—especially entry-level homes—are holding steadier. And while average prices have declined, the MLS® Home Price Index Composite (which adjusts for types of homes sold) shows a 4.5% drop year-over-year.

That’s three straight months of downward pressure on average selling prices. In effect, buyers who watched values climb unsustainably over the past few years can now, for the first time in over a decade, consider that “negotiation” actually means having leverage.

WHAT SELLER'S NEED TO KNOW

Lack of Economic Confidence: Consumer confidence in Canada took a hit in April 2025, owing to ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. and questions about where interest rates will settle later this year.

Equity Concerns: Buyers who purchased at the 2021-2022 peak often have minimal equity cushions. As a result, they’re wary of selling now unless they can be certain their next purchase will appreciate—another factor keeping them on the sidelines.

If you’re planning to sell this summer, here’s the blunt truth: price below what you think your home is worth. Why? Because it’s one of the few ways left to generate urgency. List too high and you’ll sit. Price it right—or slightly low—and you might still get interest, or even a decent offer.

Let’s be honest: buyers today aren’t feeling FOMO. There’s no frenzy. There’s no lineups. There’s no “offer night with six bids” kind of magic. That script has changed. And if you do get an offer—consider taking it. Holding out for last year’s price could mean watching your place linger into fall… or beyond.

WHAT BUYER'S NEED TO KNOW

For the first time since 2010, buyers can once again negotiate deals that weren’t possible during the 2021-2022 frenzy. Consider these practical takeaways:

Bidding Wars Are Rare: In May 2025, fewer than 15 percent of GTA listings received multiple offers—a stark contrast to the 60 – 70 percent we saw in late 2021.

Price Reductions Are Common: It seems close to half of active listings in May underwent at least one price reduction. If you’re touring homes, ask your agent to see the “price history”—a sign that the seller may be more negotiable.

Longer Negotiation Windows: Whereas a summer 2022 listing might have sold in 7 days or less, today’s homes often linger for 3 – 6 weeks. Buyers can schedule multiple showings, secure a home inspection, and consult advisors without feeling rushed.

Buyers with strong financing or all-cash are especially well positioned. A seller who previously fielded eight offers at full ask might now receive a single conditional offer at 95 percent of list price. That difference—$25k – $50k in the cheque—represents genuine opportunity.

LOOKING AHEAD

Why This Summer Might Be the Sweet Spot of 2025 for buyers. After months of correction and cooling, we’re approaching a unique window where:

Buyer Choice Peaks: Inventory is at its highest seasonal level, every year without a doubt July and especially August are two of the slower months for GTA Real Estate activity, kids get out of school, many buyers head for vacations and the market slows to crawl come early August. As an example July 2024 saw 5,498 total home sales and August 2024 saw just 5,094 sales. With 2025 sales numbers continuing to trend downward I suspect we could see less than 5000 sales in each of these upcoming months, which historically speaking is very low as we usually average closer to 6000+ sales when looking at the last decade.

Over the years I’ve had many buyers purchase within these months without bidding wars and usually a sense of desperation from sellers as many see and understand how slow things are come peak summer.

So my advice to any active or about to be active buyers is to focus in on the next 10 weeks, be active in the market looking at homes, going to open houses and you may just find a great home in a sought after neighbourhood at a much more reduced purchase price than you could have imagined.

Seller Motivation Rises: Those who listed early spring and didn’t sell are now more realistic about pricing. Many will drop their price a final time in June/July to avoid the August market.

Mortgage Rate Clarity (Expected): Analysts anticipate one or two Bank of Canada rate cuts before year-end. As soon as buyers sense the direction of rates, continue to see the headlines of prices coming down and listings up they’ll re-enter the market in search of a deal.

Summer 2025 may represent one of the few times in the past 15 years where a buyer truly has the upper hand. Properties have fewer competing offers, days on market hover near two – three weeks, and motivated sellers—especially those carrying second mortgages—are willing to negotiate freebies (credit for closing costs, extended closing, covering HV/AC tune-ups, etc.). I suspect some buyers who are uniquely positioned will look to jump in and get a deal, others will wait to try to time the bottom.

As always feel free to send me your feedback or questions.